PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundBayern München
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match9.79 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.7%▲PossessionBorussia Dortmund · Bayern München66.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession52.7%66.6%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Borussia Dortmund
0Draws
1Bayern München
Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 8 · 5 too close

2.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲3.67 goals/match
1.04 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲18.9 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲9.79 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲8.79 shots/match
3.46 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲2.46 shots/match
52.7%Possessionseason · 24/2466.6%
5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/246.17 corners/match
4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲3.46 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲1.71 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/249.21 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2438%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund69.4
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund73.1
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund19.4
Bayern München86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund58.4
Bayern München27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund75
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund69.4
Bayern München77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲9.2 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/562%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.1 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲9.3 shots/match
53.3%Possession10/1065.2%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.7 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/100.8 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
2.13 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲3.67 goals/match
1.04 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots24/24▲18.9 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲8.79 shots/match
52.7%Possession24/2466.6%
5.29 corners/matchCorners24/246.17 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards24/241.71 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls24/249.21 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
2.33 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲3.33 goals/match
0.92 goals/matchGoals allowed12/120.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots12/12▲17.3 shots/match
5.42 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲8.42 shots/match
54.1%Possession12/1267%
7 corners/matchCorners12/125.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards12/122 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls12/128.92 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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