UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 17:45 UTCFull timeGewiss StadiumFull-time recap

Atalanta

WWLLL

4–1Full-time recap

Borussia Dortmund

WDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	Borussia Dortmund
Shots	15 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.61 xG/match▲	0.93 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%
Corners	5 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atalanta: 15 shots, 9 on target, 2.63 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 2.63 xG · Borussia Dortmund 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	2.2 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Borussia Dortmund11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	Borussia Dortmund	Baseline
Shots	14.1 shots/match	11 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	10.7 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta

0Draws

2Borussia Dortmund

17 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund — Atalanta · UEFA Champions League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 3 · 5 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲2.2 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/102.1 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/101.63 xG/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/101.4 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1011 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1012.1 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.7 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.2 shots/match

52.1%Possessionseason · 10/1053.5%

4.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/104.1 corners/match

3.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/103.2 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta65.5

Borussia Dortmund70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta45.7

Borussia Dortmund48.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta67.3

Borussia Dortmund36.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta51.2

Borussia Dortmund10.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta39.3

Borussia Dortmund53.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta36.9

Borussia Dortmund29.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta42.5

Borussia Dortmund36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.45 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

56.6%Possession5/550.8%

4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.63 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match

52.1%Possession10/1053.5%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.63 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match

52.1%Possession10/1053.5%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53.2 goals/match

2.37 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.14 xG/match

17 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match

53.4%Possession5/552.8%

5 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4