PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Napoli

WLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaNapoli
Shots10 shots/match10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners6 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match14.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.65 corners/match▲CornersAtalanta · Napoli5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaNapoliBaseline
Corners5.65 corners/match5 corners/match4.24 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta
0Draws
1Napoli
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 5 · 6 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.5 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.04 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2613 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲10.9 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/264.65 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.04 shots/match
54.2%Possessionseason · 26/2657%
5.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/265 corners/match
4.58 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲2.81 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.46 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2612.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2635%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2677%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta67.5
Napoli82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta78.3
Napoli67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta65.8
Napoli72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta87.5
Napoli17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta17.5
Napoli15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Napoli82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta68.1
Napoli57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
46.4%Possession5/555%
6 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
48.2%Possession10/1058.2%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.5 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.04 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots26/2613 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target26/264.65 shots/match
54.2%Possession26/2657%
5.65 corners/matchCorners26/265 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards26/261.46 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.29 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.6 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.14 shots/match
55%Possession14/1456.7%
6.86 corners/matchCorners14/144.43 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.76 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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