PitchMath
Serie A · 2025New Balance Arena

Atalanta 2–1 Napoli · Serie A

2–1Historical match

Napoli

WLWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 2–1.

Shots
1010
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
0.751.08
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Napoli 2–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Napoli): shots 10–10, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 0.75–1.08, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match14.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.65 corners/match ●CornersAtalanta · Napoli5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaNapoliBaseline
Corners5.65 corners/match5 corners/match4.24 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots10 shotsAtalanta 10 shots, Napoli 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsAtalanta 7 shots, Napoli 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG1.08 xGAtalanta 0.75 xG, Napoli 1.08 xG
  • Possession56%44%Atalanta 56%, Napoli 44%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerAtalanta 6 corners, Napoli 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls9 foulsAtalanta 10 fouls, Napoli 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardAtalanta 1 card, Napoli 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kamaldeen Sulemana · Atalanta · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRaoul Bellanova · Atalanta · 56′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSam Beukema · Napoli · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlisson Santos · Napoli · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlisson Santos · Napoli · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRasmus Højlund · Napoli · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRaoul Bellanova · Atalanta · 7′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlisson Santos · Napoli · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 81′ · 0.06 xG · goalAlisson Santos · Napoli · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Vergara · Napoli · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKamaldeen Sulemana · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 68′ · 0.11 xG · on targetStanislav Lobotka · Napoli · 51′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 3′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 61′ · 0.15 xG · goalAntonio Vergara · Napoli · 45′ · 0.25 xG · on targetSam Beukema · Napoli · 18′ · 0.47 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 10 shots, 7 on target, 0.74 xG. Napoli: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Mario Pašalić · Atalanta · 61′Lazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 81′Sam Beukema · Napoli · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 0.74 xG · Napoli 1.18 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atalanta
0Draws
3Napoli
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A3–1
Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A2–3
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A0–3
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A0–3
Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Napoli in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta26 matchesNapoli26 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.85 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.04 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/261.41 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots26/2613 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target26/264.65 shots/match
54.1%Possession26/26● 57.1%
5.65 corners/match ●Corners26/265 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards26/261.46 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaNapoli
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headAtalanta — Napoli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required