PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Parma

DLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanParma
Shots25 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AC Milan. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.73 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AC Milan.

3.89 days▲Rest daysAC Milan · Parma7.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAC MilanParmaBaseline
Rest days3.89 days7.12 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0AC Milan
1Draws
0Parma
Parma — AC Milan · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Parma in 0 · 5 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/260.73 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.19 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2611.5 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2614.7 shots/match
4.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/262.92 shots/match
3.42 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.35 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 26/2644.3%
4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/263.96 corners/match
4.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/264.54 corners/match
1.73 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262 cards/match
9.77 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2635%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2654%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan57.5
Parma22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan75.8
Parma20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan80.8
Parma36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan62.5
Parma67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan12.5
Parma27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan57.5
Parma40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan50.6
Parma24.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
55%Possession5/549.6%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match
53.9%Possession10/1047.3%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored26/260.73 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.19 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots26/2611.5 shots/match
4.69 shots/match▲Shots on target26/262.92 shots/match
52.4%Possession26/2644.3%
4.54 corners/matchCorners26/263.96 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards26/262 cards/match
9.77 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.69 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.3 shots/match
5.31 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.92 shots/match
54.5%Possession13/1342.7%
5.92 corners/matchCorners13/133.62 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards13/132.15 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanParma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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