PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeOptus StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Como

LWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanComo
Shots6 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Como's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Como have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.8%▲PossessionAC Milan · Como61.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanComoBaseline
Possession51.8%61.6%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1AC Milan
0Draws
0Como
Como — AC Milan · Serie A1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Como in 5 · 7 too close

1.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/251.56 goals/match
0.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/250.76 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲14.4 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲9.56 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.2 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/253.52 shots/match
51.8%Possessionseason · 25/2561.6%
4.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.12 corners/match
4.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.32 corners/match
1.72 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.52 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2513.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲48%
96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2572%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan57.5
Como97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan72.5
Como84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan80.8
Como86.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan52.5
Como22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan12.5
Como77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan57.5
Como47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan47.5
Como68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
55.4%Possession5/563.4%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.4 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.6 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1064.1%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored25/251.56 goals/match
0.76 goals/matchGoals allowed25/250.76 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots25/25▲14.4 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.2 shots/match
51.8%Possession25/2561.6%
4.52 corners/matchCorners25/254.12 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards25/252.52 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored12/121.5 goals/match
0.83 goals/matchGoals allowed12/120.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.8 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.25 shots/match
53.5%Possession12/1259.8%
6 corners/matchCorners12/123.83 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards12/122.58 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.24 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanComo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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