PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Optus Stadium

Milan 1–1 Como · Serie A

Milan

WWDWW
1–1Historical match

Como

LWWDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan and Como drew 1–1.

Shots
610
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.761.45
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan and Como drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Como): shots 6–10, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.76–1.45, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Como's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Como have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.8%PossessionAC Milan · Como● 61.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanComoBaseline
Possession51.8%61.6%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots10 shotsMilan 6 shots, Como 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsMilan 4 shots, Como 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.76 xG1.45 xGMilan 0.76 xG, Como 1.45 xG
  • Possession54%46%Milan 54%, Como 46%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersMilan 4 corners, Como 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsMilan 11 fouls, Como 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsMilan 2 cards, Como 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÁlex Valle · Como · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJesús Rodriguez · Como · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAnastasios Douvikas · Como · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · AC Milan · 34′ · 0.06 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 84′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMatteo Gabbia · AC Milan · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnastasios Douvikas · Como · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMartin Baturina · Como · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJacobo Ramón · Como · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJacobo Ramón · Como · 39′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 64′ · 0.12 xG · goalAnastasios Douvikas · Como · 76′ · 0.16 xG · on targetNico Paz · Como · 32′ · 0.38 xG · goalSergi Roberto · Como · 39′ · 0.38 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 70′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AC Milan: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.74 xG. Como: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 64′Nico Paz · Como · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 0.74 xG · Como 1.47 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Milan
0Draws
0Como
Como — Milan · Serie A1–3
Milan — Como · Serie A2–1
Como — Milan · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Como in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan25 matchesComo25 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored25/251.56 goals/match
0.76 goals/matchGoals allowed25/250.76 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.61 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 14.4 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.2 shots/match
51.8%Possession25/25● 61.6%
4.52 corners/match ●Corners25/254.12 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards25/252.52 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanComo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headMilan — Como
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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