Serie A · 2025Mon, 16 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeUnipol DomusFull-time recap

Cagliari

LWWWL

0–2Full-time recap

Lecce

LLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Cagliari	Lecce
Shots	11 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Possession	59%	41%
Corners	8 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match	0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.12 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Cagliari

0Draws

0Lecce

19 Sept 2025Lecce — Cagliari · Serie A1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 6 · 5 too close

1.12 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/250.68 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.24 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

9.96 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/2510.3 shots/match

13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲12.7 shots/match

3.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/252.52 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲3.96 shots/match

45.8%Possessionseason · 25/2543.7%

3.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.76 corners/match

5.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲5.16 corners/match

2.28 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.88 cards/match

15.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲32%

64%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2548%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari37.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari23.3

Lecce6.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari30

Lecce56.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari7.5

Lecce32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari86.2

Lecce30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari7.5

Lecce72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari32.5

Lecce30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match

3 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match

44%Possession5/544.6%

3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match

14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.5 shots/matchShots10/1010.4 shots/match

3.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.2 shots/match

48.1%Possession10/1041.3%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match

1.9 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match

14.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches

1.12 goals/match▲Goals scored25/250.68 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.24 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.96 shots/matchShots25/2510.3 shots/match

3.36 shots/match▲Shots on target25/252.52 shots/match

45.8%Possession25/2543.7%

3.52 corners/matchCorners25/254.76 corners/match

2.28 cards/matchCards25/251.88 cards/match

15.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.67 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.25 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.75 shots/match▲Shots12/129.17 shots/match

3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/121.92 shots/match

47.6%Possession12/1240.7%

4.08 corners/matchCorners12/124.5 corners/match

1.92 cards/matchCards12/121.5 cards/match

15.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.24 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match