PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

LDLWW
0–2Full-time recap

Inter

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceInter
Shots3 shots/match24 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession32%68%
Corners2 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.6 goals/match2.38 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsLecce · Inter18.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLecceInterBaseline
Shots10 shots/match18.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match8.19 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.2%▲PossessionLecce · Inter60.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLecceInterBaseline
Possession43.2%60.5%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce
0Draws
1Inter
Inter — Lecce · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Inter in 10 · 4 too close

0.65 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲2.38 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲18.7 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲8.19 shots/match
2.42 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲6.5 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲2.73 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 26/2660.5%
4.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/266.85 corners/match
5.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲2.73 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.62 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲54%
46%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce12.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce5.8
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce52.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce22.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce30
Inter37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce62.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce27.5
Inter88.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲23.4 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲9.4 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/565%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.7 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲21 shots/match
1.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.1 shots/match
40.7%Possession10/1062.6%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
0.65 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲2.38 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲0.81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots26/26▲18.7 shots/match
2.42 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲6.5 shots/match
43.2%Possession26/2660.5%
4.65 corners/matchCorners26/266.85 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards26/261.62 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches
0.64 goals/matchGoals scored14/13▲2 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed14/13▲0.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots14/13▲18.1 shots/match
2.86 shots/matchShots on target14/13▲5.62 shots/match
45.4%Possession14/1361%
4.79 corners/matchCorners14/136.08 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards14/131.62 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1313.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceInter
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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