PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Olimpico di TorinoFull-time recap

Torino

LLLWD
1–2Full-time recap

Bologna

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTorinoBologna
Shots7 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible away split

moderate

Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.4%▲PossessionTorino · Bologna55%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTorinoBolognaBaseline
Possession44.4%55%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Torino
1Draws
0Bologna
Bologna — Torino · Serie A0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Torino favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Bologna in 7 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.36 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲13.3 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲10.4 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.96 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲3.96 shots/match
44.4%Possessionseason · 25/2555%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.68 corners/match
4.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲4 corners/match
1.96 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.2 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2514.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Torino17.5
Bologna72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Torino47.5
Bologna63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Torino24.2
Bologna65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Torino82.5
Bologna37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Torino62.5
Bologna72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Torino37.5
Bologna62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Torino58.8
Bologna65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/53.2 shots/match
42.4%Possession5/554.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
46.5%Possession10/1052.6%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.36 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots25/25▲13.3 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.96 shots/match
44.4%Possession25/2555%
4 corners/matchCorners25/254.68 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards25/252.2 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2514.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.69 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.1 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134 shots/match
45.5%Possession13/1354.2%
4.08 corners/matchCorners13/134 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards13/132.54 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls13/1315.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.23 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTorinoBologna
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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