PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma 1–1 Cagliari · Serie A

Parma

LLWWW
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Parma and Cagliari drew 1–1.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.280.52
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Parma and Cagliari drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Parma – Cagliari): shots 18–11, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.28–0.52, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.74 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shotsParma 18 shots, Cagliari 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsParma 4 shots, Cagliari 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.52 xGParma 1.28 xG, Cagliari 0.52 xG
  • Possession56%44%Parma 56%, Cagliari 44%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersParma 6 corners, Cagliari 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsParma 14 fouls, Cagliari 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsParma 2 cards, Cagliari 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabriel Strefezza · Parma · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Esposito · Cagliari · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmanuele Valeri · Parma · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Strefezza · Parma · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSemih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sulemana · Cagliari · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHans Nicolussi Caviglia · Parma · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Folorunsho · Cagliari · 62′ · 0.02 xG · goalMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Valenti · Parma · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Ordoñez · Parma · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Obert · Cagliari · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Strefezza · Parma · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMariano Troilo · Parma · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSemih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 42′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSebastiano Esposito · Cagliari · 52′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 66′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSemih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 9′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 15′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 13′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Esposito · Cagliari · 9′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 83′ · 0.20 xG · goalMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 39′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.25 xG. Cagliari: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Gaetano Oristanio · Parma · 83′Michael Folorunsho · Cagliari · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 1.25 xG · Cagliari 0.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Parma
1Draws
4Cagliari
Cagliari — Parma · Serie A2–0
Cagliari — Parma · Serie A2–1
Parma — Cagliari · Serie A2–3
Parma — Cagliari · Serie B0–0
Cagliari — Parma · Serie B3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Cagliari in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma27 matchesCagliari27 matches
0.74 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.33 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals27/270.91 xG/match
11.8 shots/match ▲Shots27/2710.1 shots/match
2.96 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 3.37 shots/match
44.8%Possession27/27● 45.7%
4.04 corners/match ●Corners27/273.48 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards27/272.41 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls27/2715 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 27 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaCagliari
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headParma — Cagliari
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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