Serie A · 2025Fri, 27 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

LLWWW

1–1Full-time recap

Cagliari

WWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Parma	Cagliari
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	6 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.74 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Parma

0Draws

1Cagliari

13 Sept 2025Cagliari — Parma · Serie A2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Cagliari in 4 · 4 too close

0.74 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.07 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2710 shots/match

14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲13.5 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲3.37 shots/match

4.37 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.89 shots/match

44.7%Possessionseason · 27/2745.6%

4.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/273.48 corners/match

4.48 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.59 corners/match

2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272.41 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2715 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

56%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲63%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma22.5

Cagliari37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma24.2

Cagliari22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma35.8

Cagliari30.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma67.5

Cagliari7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma30

Cagliari92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma42.5

Cagliari7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma28.8

Cagliari32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match

50.4%Possession5/550.8%

6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match

2.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.1 shots/match

48.2%Possession10/1046.4%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match

1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

0.74 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.07 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/match▲Shots27/2710 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲3.37 shots/match

44.7%Possession27/2745.6%

4.04 corners/matchCorners27/273.48 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards27/272.41 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls27/2715 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

0.79 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.2 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲3.36 shots/match

46.6%Possession14/1444.2%

4.43 corners/matchCorners14/143 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards14/142.71 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1414.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 27 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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