PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe SinigagliaFull-time recap

Como

WDLDW
3–1Full-time recap

Lecce

DLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricComoLecce
Shots12 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners5 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsComo · Lecce9.85 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricComoLecceBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match9.85 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against9.44 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Como have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3%▲PossessionComo · Lecce42.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricComoLecceBaseline
Possession61.3%42.8%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Como
0Draws
0Lecce
Lecce — Como · Serie A0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Como favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 1 · 4 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.67 goals/match
0.74 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/279.85 shots/match
9.44 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2713.1 shots/match
5.15 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/272.41 shots/match
3.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.26 shots/match
61.3%Possessionseason · 27/2742.8%
4.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.52 corners/match
3.37 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.81 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2730%
74%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2748%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Como97.5
Lecce12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Como85.8
Lecce4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Como85.8
Lecce50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Como27.5
Lecce22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Como72.5
Lecce30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Como47.5
Lecce52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Como70
Lecce23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
61.8%Possession5/543.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots10/109.5 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/101.8 shots/match
63.4%Possession10/1041%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.67 goals/match
0.74 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots27/279.85 shots/match
5.15 shots/match▲Shots on target27/272.41 shots/match
61.3%Possession27/2742.8%
4.07 corners/matchCorners27/274.52 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards27/271.81 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/130.69 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots14/138.85 shots/match
6.14 shots/match▲Shots on target14/131.92 shots/match
63.6%Possession14/1339.9%
4.43 corners/matchCorners14/134.23 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards14/131.46 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsComoLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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