PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Marcantonio BentegodiFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

Napoli

LWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHellas VeronaNapoli
Shots8 shots/match8 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.74 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.6%▲PossessionHellas Verona · Napoli57.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHellas VeronaNapoliBaseline
Possession40.6%57.3%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Hellas Verona show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hellas Verona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsHellas Verona · Napoli12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHellas VeronaNapoliBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match10.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hellas Verona
1Draws
0Napoli
Napoli — Hellas Verona · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hellas Verona favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 10 · 4 too close

0.74 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.52 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.04 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲12.8 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲10.8 shots/match
3.74 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.67 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3 shots/match
40.6%Possessionseason · 27/2757.3%
3.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275 corners/match
5.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲2.78 corners/match
2.37 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.56 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲33%
52%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona7.5
Napoli87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona23.3
Napoli67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona26.7
Napoli74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona77.5
Napoli17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona95
Napoli15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona17.5
Napoli77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona43.8
Napoli56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match
1.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/556.4%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots10/10▲12 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
41.3%Possession10/1058.2%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
0.74 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.52 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.04 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots27/27▲12.8 shots/match
3.74 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.67 shots/match
40.6%Possession27/2757.3%
3.7 corners/matchCorners27/275 corners/match
2.37 cards/matchCards27/271.56 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls27/2712 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 15 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/15▲1.33 goals/match
1.62 goals/matchGoals allowed13/15▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots13/15▲12.3 shots/match
4.23 shots/matchShots on target13/154.2 shots/match
43.3%Possession13/1557.3%
4.46 corners/matchCorners13/154.47 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/151.8 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1511.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHellas VeronaNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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