PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

LLWWW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaHellas Verona
Shots19 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession68%32%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3%▲PossessionBologna · Hellas Verona40.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBolognaHellas VeronaBaseline
Possession55.3%40.3%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bologna
0Draws
0Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona — Bologna · Serie A2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0 · 5 too close

1.32 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.79 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2810.9 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2813.6 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/283.79 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.36 shots/match
55.3%Possessionseason · 28/2840.3%
4.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.68 corners/match
4.18 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/285.11 corners/match
2.11 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.36 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2815.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2818%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2854%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna67.5
Hellas Verona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna59.2
Hellas Verona28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna64.2
Hellas Verona24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna37.5
Hellas Verona82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna65
Hellas Verona93.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna67.5
Hellas Verona17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna62.5
Hellas Verona45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
55.6%Possession5/541%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
54.6%Possession10/1041.5%
4 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.32 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.79 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots28/2810.9 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target28/283.79 shots/match
55.3%Possession28/2840.3%
4.64 corners/matchCorners28/283.68 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards28/282.36 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2815.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 15 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored14/150.67 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.87 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1510.9 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target14/153.4 shots/match
56.1%Possession14/1537.6%
5.29 corners/matchCorners14/153 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards14/152.6 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1516.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.88 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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