PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Parma

LWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaParma
Shots12 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsFiorentina · Parma11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaParmaBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fiorentina
0Draws
1Parma
Parma — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Parma in 4 · 5 too close

1.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.71 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.6 shots/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2814.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/282.86 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲4.25 shots/match
53.1%Possessionseason · 28/2844.7%
4.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.93 corners/match
4.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/284.57 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/28▲1.93 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2810.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲36%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2854%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5
Parma27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina46.7
Parma24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina30.8
Parma40.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina62.5
Parma67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina63.8
Parma27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina72.5
Parma32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina52.5
Parma27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/513.4 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
53%Possession5/551.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1048.9%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.07 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.71 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.6 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target28/282.86 shots/match
53.1%Possession28/2844.7%
4.68 corners/matchCorners28/283.93 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards28/281.93 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.64 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.1 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.71 shots/match
55.2%Possession14/1442.8%
5.86 corners/matchCorners14/143.43 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards14/142 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.76 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaParma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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