Serie A · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

LWWLL

2–1Full-time recap

Cremonese

LLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Cremonese
Shots	9 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	19 fouls/match	28 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	0.71 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce

0Draws

1Cremonese

7 Dec 2025Cremonese — Lecce · Serie A2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Cremonese in 2 · 5 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲0.79 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.43 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

9.82 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/289.11 shots/match

13 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2817.1 shots/match

2.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲3.18 shots/match

4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/285.57 shots/match

42.7%Possessionseason · 28/2845.5%

4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.32 corners/match

5.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/286.68 corners/match

1.79 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.11 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2813.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2825%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce12.5

Cremonese37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce5.8

Cremonese13.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce47.5

Cremonese12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce27.5

Cremonese2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce35

Cremonese60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce55

Cremonese2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce26.9

Cremonese20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match

39.8%Possession5/545.4%

3.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match

0.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.5 shots/match

2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.3 shots/match

40%Possession10/1045.5%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches

0.71 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲0.79 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.43 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.82 shots/match▲Shots28/289.11 shots/match

2.43 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲3.18 shots/match

42.7%Possession28/2845.5%

4.5 corners/matchCorners28/283.32 corners/match

1.79 cards/matchCards28/282.11 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

0.73 goals/matchGoals scored15/150.73 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.53 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.7 shots/match▲Shots15/158.27 shots/match

2.87 shots/matchShots on target15/152.73 shots/match

45.1%Possession15/1545.5%

4.73 corners/matchCorners15/153.27 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards15/152.07 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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