PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Via del Mare

Lecce 2–1 Cremonese · Serie A

Lecce

LWWLL
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lecce won 2–1.

Shots
910
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.60.96
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lecce beat Cremonese 2–1. Recorded in this match (Lecce – Cremonese): shots 9–10, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.6–0.96, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots10 shotsLecce 9 shots, Cremonese 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsLecce 3 shots, Cremonese 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.6 xG0.96 xGLecce 1.6 xG, Cremonese 0.96 xG
  • Possession41%59%Lecce 41%, Cremonese 59%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersLecce 4 corners, Cremonese 4 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls27 foulsLecce 19 fouls, Cremonese 27 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsLecce 1 card, Cremonese 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Federico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Barbieri · Cremonese · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYoussef Maleh · Cremonese · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJari Vandeputte · Cremonese · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorten Thorsby · Cremonese · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 69′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWalid Cheddira · Lecce · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Cremonese · 57′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 72′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMartín Payero · Cremonese · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetNikola Štulić · Lecce · 35′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 47′ · 0.24 xG · goalJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 29′ · 0.27 xG · on targetSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 22′ · 0.29 xG · goalNikola Štulić · Lecce · 38′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG. Cremonese: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Santiago Pierotti · Lecce · 22′Nikola Štulić · Lecce · 38′Federico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 1.64 xG · Cremonese 0.97 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lecce
1Draws
2Cremonese
Cremonese — Lecce · Serie A2–0
Cremonese — Lecce · Serie A0–2
Lecce — Cremonese · Serie A1–1
Lecce — Cremonese · Serie B2–1
Cremonese — Lecce · Serie B3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lecce favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Cremonese in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lecce28 matchesCremonese28 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 0.79 goals/match
1.32 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.43 goals/match
0.79 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 0.97 xG/match
9.82 shots/match ▲Shots28/289.11 shots/match
2.43 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 3.18 shots/match
42.7%Possession28/28● 45.5%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners28/283.32 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards28/282.11 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLecceCremonese
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headLecce — Cremonese
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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