Serie A · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

WDLWW

2–1Full-time recap

Lecce

WWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Napoli	Lecce
Shots	12 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.3 xG/match▲	0.76 xG/match
Possession	70%	30%
Corners	7 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.72 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.72 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsNapoli · Lecce9.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Napoli	Lecce	Baseline
Shots	12.8 shots/match	9.9 shots/match	11.6 shots/match
Shots against	10.7 shots/match	13 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

58%▲PossessionNapoli · Lecce42.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Napoli	Lecce	Baseline
Possession	58%	42.3%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Napoli

0Draws

0Lecce

28 Oct 2025Lecce — Napoli · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 4 too close

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/290.72 goals/match

1.03 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.34 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/299.9 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2913 shots/match

4.79 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/292.41 shots/match

3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.28 shots/match

58%Possessionseason · 29/2942.3%

5.28 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.59 corners/match

2.9 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/295.34 corners/match

1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/281.79 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2912.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2928%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2952%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli87.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli72.5

Lecce6.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli74.2

Lecce50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli12.5

Lecce27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli17.5

Lecce31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli87.5

Lecce62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli63.8

Lecce26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match

5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match

60.6%Possession5/535%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards4/40.75 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match

4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.1 shots/match

59.6%Possession10/1038.9%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards9/91.11 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored29/290.72 goals/match

1.03 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.34 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.8 shots/match▲Shots29/299.9 shots/match

4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target29/292.41 shots/match

58%Possession29/2942.3%

5.28 corners/matchCorners29/294.59 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards28/281.79 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.71 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.43 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.4 shots/match▲Shots14/149.07 shots/match

5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target14/141.93 shots/match

58.8%Possession14/1439.2%

6.14 corners/matchCorners14/144.43 corners/match

1.15 cards/matchCards13/131.46 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.23 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4