Serie A · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

Inter

WWWWL

1–1Full-time recap

Atalanta

WWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Inter	Atalanta
Shots	16 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.59 xG/match▲	1.08 xG/match
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	2 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	5 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.76 corners/match▲CornersInter · Atalanta5.83 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Inter	Atalanta	Baseline
Corners	6.76 corners/match	5.83 corners/match	4.27 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.24 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	2.24 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Atalanta14.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Inter	Atalanta	Baseline
Shots	18.2 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	11.6 shots/match
Shots against	8.1 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Inter

0Draws

0Atalanta

28 Dec 2025Atalanta — Inter · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 0 · 5 too close

2.24 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.38 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/290.93 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

18.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2914.9 shots/match

8.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2911.8 shots/match

6.21 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/294.69 shots/match

2.69 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/293.93 shots/match

60.4%Possessionseason · 29/2955%

6.76 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/295.83 corners/match

2.62 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/294.38 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/281.64 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2911.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

52%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2934%

93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2983%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter92.5

Atalanta67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter97.5

Atalanta79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter92.5

Atalanta65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter97.5

Atalanta87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter38.8

Atalanta16.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter97.5

Atalanta92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter88.8

Atalanta68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

17.2 shots/match▲Shots5/515.4 shots/match

5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.2 shots/match

61%Possession5/558.6%

6.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.8 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

19.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1016 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.5 shots/match

63.2%Possession10/1053.1%

6.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

1.78 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

2.24 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.38 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/290.93 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

18.2 shots/match▲Shots29/2914.9 shots/match

6.21 shots/match▲Shots on target29/294.69 shots/match

60.4%Possession29/2955%

6.76 corners/matchCorners29/295.83 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCards28/281.64 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored15/141.14 goals/match

0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

18.8 shots/match▲Shots15/1412.1 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target15/143.86 shots/match

59.7%Possession15/1454%

7.4 corners/matchCorners15/144.43 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCards14/132.08 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4