PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Milan 1–0 Inter · Serie A

Milan

WWDLW
1–0Historical match

Inter

WWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–0.

Shots
911
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.771.24
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Inter 1–0. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Inter): shots 9–11, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.77–1.24, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAC Milan · Inter18.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanInterBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match18.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match8.14 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots11 shotsMilan 9 shots, Inter 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsMilan 2 shots, Inter 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG1.24 xGMilan 0.77 xG, Inter 1.24 xG
  • Possession37%63%Milan 37%, Inter 63%
  • Corners1 corner6 cornersMilan 1 corner, Inter 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls12 foulsMilan 8 fouls, Inter 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsMilan 2 cards, Inter 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Federico Dimarco · Inter · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFederico Dimarco · Inter · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · AC Milan · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPiotr Zieliński · Inter · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFrancesco Pio Esposito · Inter · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnge-Yoan Bonny · Inter · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnge-Yoan Bonny · Inter · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Inter · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPervis Estupiñán · AC Milan · 35′ · 0.06 xG · goalYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 3′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Pio Esposito · Inter · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 41′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 39′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 54′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 49′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 34′ · 0.61 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AC Milan: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.75 xG. Inter: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Pervis Estupiñán · AC Milan · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 0.75 xG · Inter 1.21 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Milan
1Draws
2Inter
Inter — Milan · Serie A0–1
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–1
Inter — Milan · Serie A1–2
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–2
Inter — Milan · Serie A5–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Inter in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan28 matchesInter28 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 2.29 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/280.79 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 1.96 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 18.3 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 6.29 shots/match
51.9%Possession28/28● 60.5%
4.5 corners/matchCorners28/28● 6.93 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCards28/281.64 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanInter
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headMilan — Inter
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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