PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Luigi FerrarisFull-time recap

Genoa

LLDWL
2–1Full-time recap

AS Roma

LWDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricGenoaAS Roma
Shots11 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession35%65%
Corners3 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AS Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AS Roma have a visible away split

moderate

AS Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsGenoa · AS Roma13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGenoaAS RomaBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match9.54 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa
0Draws
1AS Roma
AS Roma — Genoa · Serie A3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AS Roma in 9 · 5 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.36 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲13.5 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲9.54 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.64 shots/match
4.36 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲3.61 shots/match
47.2%Possessionseason · 28/2857.1%
3.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.07 corners/match
5.32 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲2.96 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/281.89 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2814.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲43%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa47.5
AS Roma82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa50.8
AS Roma68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa35.8
AS Roma83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa47.5
AS Roma32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa50
AS Roma62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa12.5
AS Roma80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa41.2
AS Roma76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/513 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/552.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.2 shots/match
47.2%Possession10/1056%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.36 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots28/28▲13.5 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.64 shots/match
47.2%Possession28/2857.1%
3.54 corners/matchCorners28/285.07 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards28/281.89 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls28/2814.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/141.14 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/14▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots15/1411.3 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target15/144.21 shots/match
49.9%Possession15/1456.7%
3.4 corners/matchCorners15/144.5 corners/match
1.87 cards/matchCards15/142.21 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1415.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.89 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsGenoaAS Roma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match