Serie A · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

Lazio

DLDLW

1–0Full-time recap

AC Milan

WDLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lazio	AC Milan
Shots	7 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.41 xG/match	1.19 xG/match▲
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	1 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	19 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.52 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lazio

0Draws

1AC Milan

4 Dec 2025Lazio — AC Milan · Coppa Italia1–0

29 Nov 2025AC Milan — Lazio · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 8 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.52 goals/match

0.97 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲0.72 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/1—

11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲13.7 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲10.9 shots/match

3.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲4.59 shots/match

4.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲3.31 shots/match

50.3%Possessionseason · 29/2952.1%

3.72 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.66 corners/match

4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/294.41 corners/match

2.3 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/28▲1.68 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2910 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

45%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2945%

52%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio52.5

AC Milan57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio34.2

AC Milan75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio45.8

AC Milan82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio17.5

AC Milan72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio43.8

AC Milan12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio22.5

AC Milan67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio26.2

AC Milan55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

12 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match

50.8%Possession5/554%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/41.5 cards/match

8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match

3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match

50.5%Possession10/1052.5%

3.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards8/91.67 cards/match

8.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.52 goals/match

0.97 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲0.72 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

11.1 shots/matchShots29/29▲13.7 shots/match

3.79 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲4.59 shots/match

50.3%Possession29/2952.1%

3.72 corners/matchCorners29/294.66 corners/match

2.3 cards/matchCards27/281.68 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls29/2910 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.67 goals/match

1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.67 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

12.5 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.3 shots/match

4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.13 shots/match

49.6%Possession15/1551%

4.4 corners/matchCorners15/153.8 corners/match

2.62 cards/matchCards13/141.5 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls15/159.53 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4