PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Milan 3–2 Torino · Serie A

Milan

DLWWL
3–2Historical match

Torino

LLWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 3–2.

Shots
1518
Shots on target
67
Expected goals
1.432.22
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Torino 3–2. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Torino): shots 15–18, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 1.43–2.22, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Torino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Torino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AC Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.4% ●PossessionAC Milan · Torino43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanTorinoBaseline
Possession52.4%43.8%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots18 shotsMilan 15 shots, Torino 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shotsMilan 6 shots, Torino 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.43 xG2.22 xGMilan 1.43 xG, Torino 2.22 xG
  • Possession63%37%Milan 63%, Torino 37%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersMilan 4 corners, Torino 6 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsMilan 9 fouls, Torino 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardMilan 3 cards, Torino 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Giovanni Simeone · Torino · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Torino · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 29′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 36′ · 0.02 xG · on targetStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 37′ · 0.02 xG · goalNikola Vlašić · Torino · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZachary Athekame · AC Milan · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Simeone · Torino · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEmirhan İlkhan · Torino · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Torino · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmirhan İlkhan · Torino · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 38′ · 0.06 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 85′ · 0.07 xG · on targetArdian Ismajli · Torino · 15′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNikola Vlašić · Torino · 77′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Simeone · Torino · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Simeone · Torino · 67′ · 0.14 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 55′ · 0.16 xG · goalNikola Vlašić · Torino · 13′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Simeone · Torino · 44′ · 0.36 xG · goalAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 54′ · 0.70 xG · goalNikola Vlašić · Torino · 83′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AC Milan: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.37 xG. Torino: 18 shots, 7 on target, 2.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 37′Adrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 54′Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan · 55′Giovanni Simeone · Torino · 44′Nikola Vlašić · Torino · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 1.37 xG · Torino 2.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Milan
1Draws
2Torino
Torino — Milan · Serie A2–3
Torino — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Torino · Serie A2–2
Torino — Milan · Serie A3–1
Milan — Torino · Serie A4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Torino in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan30 matchesTorino30 matches
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301.13 goals/match
0.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.77 goals/match
1.64 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.12 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots30/3011.9 shots/match
4.63 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/304.37 shots/match
52.4% ●Possession30/3043.8%
4.63 corners/match ●Corners30/303.97 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCards28/282.07 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls30/3014.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanTorino
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headMilan — Torino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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