Serie A · 2025Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeUnipol DomusFull-time recap

Cagliari

LDDLL

0–1Full-time recap

Napoli

DLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Cagliari	Napoli
Shots	7 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.35 xG/match	1.77 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%
Corners	2 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.03 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsCagliari · Napoli13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Cagliari	Napoli	Baseline
Shots	10 shots/match	13 shots/match	11.7 shots/match
Shots against	13.3 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

46%▲PossessionCagliari · Napoli58.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Cagliari	Napoli	Baseline
Possession	46%	58.3%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari

1Draws

1Napoli

3 Dec 2025Napoli — Cagliari · Coppa Italia1–1

30 Aug 2025Napoli — Cagliari · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 10 · 4 too close

1.03 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.53 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

10 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲13 shots/match

13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲10.6 shots/match

3.27 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.8 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲2.9 shots/match

46%Possessionseason · 30/3058.3%

3.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/305.33 corners/match

5.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲2.87 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/28▲1.5 cards/match

15 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲33%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari42.5

Napoli87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari24.2

Napoli74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari27.5

Napoli74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari7.5

Napoli17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari95

Napoli17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari7.5

Napoli87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari35

Napoli63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

46.8%Possession5/561.8%

3 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

4 cards/matchCards4/31.67 cards/match

13 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

9.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.5 shots/match

2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match

45.4%Possession10/1059.4%

3.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

2.56 cards/matchCards9/81.75 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.03 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.53 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10 shots/matchShots30/30▲13 shots/match

3.27 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.8 shots/match

46%Possession30/3058.3%

3.43 corners/matchCorners30/305.33 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCards29/281.5 cards/match

15 fouls/matchFouls30/3012 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 16 matches

1.07 goals/matchGoals scored15/16▲1.31 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲1.06 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

9.53 shots/matchShots15/16▲12.6 shots/match

3.13 shots/matchShots on target15/16▲4.25 shots/match

45.9%Possession15/1657.9%

3.73 corners/matchCorners15/164.63 corners/match

2.14 cards/matchCards14/151.8 cards/match

15.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1611.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.02 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4