PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giovanni Zini

Cremonese 0–2 Milan · Serie A

0–2Historical match

Milan

DWWDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 0–2.

Shots
1520
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.993.51
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Cremonese 2–0. Recorded in this match (Cremonese – AC Milan): shots 15–20, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.99–3.51, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.07 shots/match ▲ShotsCremonese · AC Milan13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseAC MilanBaseline
Shots9.07 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against17.4 shots/match11 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots20 shotsCremonese 15 shots, Milan 20 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsCremonese 3 shots, Milan 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG3.51 xGCremonese 0.99 xG, Milan 3.51 xG
  • Possession47%53%Cremonese 47%, Milan 53%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersCremonese 6 corners, Milan 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls10 foulsCremonese 14 fouls, Milan 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsCremonese 2 cards, Milan 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 19′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Luperto · Cremonese · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · AC Milan · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYoussef Maleh · Cremonese · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorten Thorsby · Cremonese · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMorten Thorsby · Cremonese · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 6′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 40′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 26′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 74′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJari Vandeputte · Cremonese · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 73′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Luperto · Cremonese · 80′ · 0.17 xG · on targetKoni De Winter · AC Milan · 89′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 34′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 89′ · 0.24 xG · goalChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 44′ · 0.25 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 86′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 60′ · 0.66 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cremonese: 15 shots, 3 on target, 0.96 xG. AC Milan: 20 shots, 6 on target, 3.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 89′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cremonese 0.96 xG · AC Milan 3.57 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cremonese
2Draws
0Milan
Milan — Cremonese · Serie A1–2
Milan — Cremonese · Serie A1–1
Cremonese — Milan · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cremonese favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cremonese27 matchesMilan27 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.59 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 0.74 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲ 1.7 xG/match
9.07 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 13.7 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.74 shots/match
45%Possession27/27● 52.4%
3.3 corners/matchCorners27/27● 4.63 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards27/271.67 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls27/279.78 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCremoneseMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headCremonese — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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