PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Giovanni ZiniFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCremoneseAC Milan
Shots15 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.07 shots/match▲ShotsCremonese · AC Milan13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseAC MilanBaseline
Shots9.07 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against17.4 shots/match11 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Cremonese
0Draws
0AC Milan
AC Milan — Cremonese · Serie A1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cremonese favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 10 · 4 too close

0.78 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.59 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.74 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.07 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲13.7 shots/match
17.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.74 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.41 shots/match
45%Possessionseason · 27/2752.4%
3.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.63 corners/match
6.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.48 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.67 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.78 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲44%
48%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cremonese32.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cremonese14.2
AC Milan74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cremonese12.5
AC Milan80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cremonese2.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cremonese52.5
AC Milan11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cremonese2.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cremonese17.5
AC Milan51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
39.8%Possession5/557.2%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
43.1%Possession10/1053.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.59 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.74 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.07 shots/matchShots27/27▲13.7 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.74 shots/match
45%Possession27/2752.4%
3.3 corners/matchCorners27/274.63 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards27/271.67 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls27/279.78 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 14 matches
0.85 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲1.79 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/14▲0.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots13/14▲10.9 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on target13/14▲4.21 shots/match
45.5%Possession13/1450.4%
3.38 corners/matchCorners13/143.43 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards13/141.5 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls13/148.86 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.66 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.77 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCremoneseAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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