PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeMAPEI Stadium - Città del TricoloreFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSassuoloAtalanta
Shots7 shots/match26 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession24%76%
Corners3 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls3 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sassuolo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsSassuolo · Atalanta14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSassuoloAtalantaBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sassuolo
0Draws
0Atalanta
Atalanta — Sassuolo · Serie A0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sassuolo favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 10 · 4 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.37 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲14.9 shots/match
14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11.7 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.78 shots/match
5.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.04 shots/match
44.6%Possessionseason · 27/2755%
3.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275.78 corners/match
4.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.52 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.67 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲37%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sassuolo22.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sassuolo42.5
Atalanta80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sassuolo22.5
Atalanta67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sassuolo32.5
Atalanta87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo48.8
Atalanta18.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo22.5
Atalanta92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sassuolo28.8
Atalanta70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
40.8%Possession5/552%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.5 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
42.9%Possession10/1051.3%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.37 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots27/27▲14.9 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.78 shots/match
44.6%Possession27/2755%
3.78 corners/matchCorners27/275.78 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards27/271.67 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/131.15 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/13▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots14/13▲12.5 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target14/13▲3.92 shots/match
45.1%Possession14/1354.9%
3.86 corners/matchCorners14/134.62 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCards14/132.08 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSassuoloAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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