PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

AS Roma

DLWDW
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAS RomaJuventus
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.37 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.37 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.04 corners/match▲CornersAS Roma · Juventus5.11 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAS RomaJuventusBaseline
Corners5.04 corners/match5.11 corners/match4.3 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Juventus have a visible away split

moderate

Juventus's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match16.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0AS Roma
0Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — AS Roma · Serie A2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AS Roma favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Juventus in 5 · 5 too close

1.37 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.04 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲16.3 shots/match
9.48 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2710.3 shots/match
4.78 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲6 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲2.96 shots/match
56.9%Possessionseason · 27/2756.8%
5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275.11 corners/match
2.96 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/273.81 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.3 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2733%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2778%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AS Roma82.5
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AS Roma74.2
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AS Roma85.8
Juventus80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AS Roma37.5
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AS Roma57.5
Juventus20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AS Roma82.5
Juventus87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AS Roma79.4
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
52.2%Possession5/553.8%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.9 shots/match
55%Possession10/1057.5%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/100.9 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.04 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots27/27▲16.3 shots/match
4.78 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲6 shots/match
56.9%Possession27/2756.8%
5.04 corners/matchCorners27/275.11 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards27/271.3 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.5 goals/match
0.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots14/1413.8 shots/match
5.07 shots/matchShots on target14/145.14 shots/match
57.6%Possession14/1456.9%
5.64 corners/matchCorners14/144.21 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAS RomaJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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