PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

WWDLW
2–1Full-time recap

Torino

WDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliTorino
Shots14 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners11 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.6%▲PossessionNapoli · Torino43.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNapoliTorinoBaseline
Possession57.6%43.9%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Napoli
0Draws
1Torino
Torino — Napoli · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Torino in 1 · 4 too close

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.6 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2813.9 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/284.21 shots/match
3.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.46 shots/match
57.6%Possessionseason · 28/2843.9%
5.21 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.96 corners/match
2.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/284.57 corners/match
1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.07 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2814.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲36%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2868%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli87.5
Torino17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli72.5
Torino47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli75.8
Torino20.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli17.5
Torino77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli15
Torino70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli87.5
Torino37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli62.5
Torino57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.2 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
58.6%Possession5/542.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
57.6%Possession10/1042.9%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.6 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on target28/284.21 shots/match
57.6%Possession28/2843.9%
5.21 corners/matchCorners28/283.96 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards28/282.07 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls28/2814.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 14 matches
1.77 goals/match▲Goals scored13/140.93 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/141.93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots13/1411.1 shots/match
5.54 shots/match▲Shots on target13/144 shots/match
57.9%Possession13/1442.4%
6.08 corners/matchCorners13/143.71 corners/match
1.15 cards/matchCards13/142.29 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1414.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.11 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliTorino
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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