PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

Inter

WWWWW
2–0Full-time recap

Genoa

WLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricInterGenoa
Shots14 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Genoa's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.6 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Genoa11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterGenoaBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against8.11 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Genoa's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.4%▲PossessionInter · Genoa47.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricInterGenoaBaseline
Possession60.4%47.6%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Inter
0Draws
0Genoa
Genoa — Inter · Serie A1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Genoa in 0 · 4 too close

2.37 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.19 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.44 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2711.6 shots/match
8.11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2713.4 shots/match
6.48 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.04 shots/match
2.7 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.48 shots/match
60.4%Possessionseason · 27/2747.6%
6.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/273.56 corners/match
2.7 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.3 corners/match
1.63 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2713.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%
96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2767%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter92.5
Genoa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter97.5
Genoa49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter92.5
Genoa31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter97.5
Genoa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter40
Genoa53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter97.5
Genoa12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter90
Genoa41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
63%Possession5/551.2%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.8 shots/match
7.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
62.4%Possession10/1049.9%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
2.37 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.19 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots27/2711.6 shots/match
6.48 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.04 shots/match
60.4%Possession27/2747.6%
6.96 corners/matchCorners27/273.56 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards27/272 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2713.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches
2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/131.15 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19 shots/match▲Shots14/1311.2 shots/match
7.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/134 shots/match
59.8%Possession14/1344%
7.79 corners/matchCorners14/133.69 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/132.08 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.34 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsInterGenoa
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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