UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeSantiago BernabéuFull-time recap

Real Madrid

WLWLW

2–1Full-time recap

Benfica

WWLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Benfica
Shots	14 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.11 xG/match	1.98 xG/match▲
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.08 xG. Benfica: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.08 xG · Benfica 1.94 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Benfica's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Benfica's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

weak

Benfica's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Benfica have a visible away split

moderate

Benfica's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.1 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.3 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Benfica5.36 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Benfica	Baseline
Corners	6.3 corners/match	5.36 corners/match	4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid

0Draws

1Benfica

17 Feb 2026Benfica — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League0–1

28 Jan 2026Benfica — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Benfica in 5 · 3 too close

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/141.14 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/14▲1.07 goals/match

2.12 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/101.41 xG/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.27 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1413.9 shots/match

15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/14▲11.3 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/144.43 shots/match

6.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/14▲3.93 shots/match

57.8%Possessionseason · 10/1447.1%

6.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/145.36 corners/match

4.6 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/144.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1410.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/14▲43%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1457%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid89.3

Benfica29.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid86.7

Benfica40.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid35.6

Benfica74.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.1

Benfica63.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid48.8

Benfica36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid88.1

Benfica67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid77.7

Benfica49.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.83 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.8 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/514.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

56.4%Possession5/542.6%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

2.12 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.41 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.5 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match

57.8%Possession10/1044.9%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 14 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/141.14 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/14▲1.07 goals/match

2.12 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.41 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1413.9 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/144.43 shots/match

57.8%Possession10/1447.1%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/145.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1410.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 7 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/70.71 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/71.14 goals/match

2.58 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.14 xG/match

22.2 shots/match▲Shots5/711.1 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/73.57 shots/match

53.2%Possession5/746.7%

7.8 corners/matchCorners5/75.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/711.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match

Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

Benfica have a visible away split

Both teams have elevated corners records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match