PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for RB Leipzig. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for RB Leipzig.

3.79 days▲Rest daysRB Leipzig · FSV Mainz 057 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Rest days3.79 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · FSV Mainz 0511.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots16.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1RB Leipzig
0Draws
0FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 4 too close

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.15 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011.3 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2015.1 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.45 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.1 shots/match
52.8%Possessionseason · 20/2045%
5.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.25 corners/match
4.65 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲4.15 corners/match
1.3 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.7 cards/match
9.05 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/205%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig75
FSV Mainz 0516.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig82.4
FSV Mainz 0513.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig78.7
FSV Mainz 0530.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
FSV Mainz 0541.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig9.8
FSV Mainz 0580.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig80.6
FSV Mainz 0575
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig68.1
FSV Mainz 0541.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
60.8%Possession5/542.4%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
0.4 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
57.3%Possession10/1040.5%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
8.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.15 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shots20/2011.3 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.45 shots/match
52.8%Possession20/2045%
5.4 corners/matchCorners20/205.25 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards20/202.7 cards/match
9.05 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109.2 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
52.6%Possession10/1040%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/103.2 cards/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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