PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen
Shots19 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession44%56%
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.1%▲PossessionRB Leipzig · Bayer Leverkusen59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession50.1%59.5%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 2 · 6 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲2.2 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1514.5 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲11.8 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/155.07 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/154.67 shots/match
50.1%Possessionseason · 15/1559.5%
5.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.27 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/154.93 corners/match
1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.53 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/158.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1527%
87%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1587%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig58.3
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig88.9
Bayer Leverkusen84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig73.1
Bayer Leverkusen65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
Bayer Leverkusen30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig18
Bayer Leverkusen38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig97.2
Bayer Leverkusen69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig75
Bayer Leverkusen58.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.2 shots/match▲Shots5/514.6 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/562%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.3 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/matchShots10/1016.4 shots/match
6.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.9 shots/match
50.9%Possession10/1062.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.1 fouls/matchFouls10/108 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.2 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1514.5 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target15/155.07 shots/match
50.1%Possession15/1559.5%
5.87 corners/matchCorners15/155.27 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards15/152.53 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls15/158.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/72.14 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.1 shots/match▲Shots7/712 shots/match
7.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
50%Possession7/755.9%
5.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.43 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/72.71 cards/match
8.86 fouls/matchFouls7/78.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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