PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–3.

Shots
1915
Shots on target
78
Expected goals
1.772.72
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 3–1. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 19–15, shots on target 7–8, expected goals 1.77–2.72, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.1%PossessionRB Leipzig · Bayer Leverkusen● 59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession50.1%59.5%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots15 shotsRB Leipzig 19 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 15 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots8 shotsRB Leipzig 7 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.77 xG2.72 xGRB Leipzig 1.77 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.72 xG
  • Possession44%56%RB Leipzig 44%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 56%
  • Corners2 corners8 cornersRB Leipzig 2 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsRB Leipzig 10 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsRB Leipzig 1 card, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Conrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTidiam Gomis · RB Leipzig · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTidiam Gomis · RB Leipzig · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Maksimović · RB Leipzig · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Terrier · Bayer Leverkusen · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArthur · Bayer Leverkusen · 21′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMartin Terrier · Bayer Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.04 xG · goalChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 35′ · 0.05 xG · goalXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMalik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 7′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEzequiel Fernández · Bayer Leverkusen · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 61′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTidiam Gomis · RB Leipzig · 18′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 48′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 13′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 10′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 5′ · 0.21 xG · on targetWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.21 xG · on targetWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 31′ · 0.23 xG · on targetConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.25 xG · on targetChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.39 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 44′ · 0.48 xG · goalNathan Tella · Bayer Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.50 xG · on targetMontrell Culbreath · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.73 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 15 shots, 8 on target, 2.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 35′Martin Terrier · Bayer Leverkusen · 40′Patrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 44′Montrell Culbreath · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 1.73 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 2.66 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1RB Leipzig
1Draws
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–3
RB Leipzig — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga3–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig15 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen15 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 2.2 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.33 goals/match
1.87 xG/matchExpected goals15/151.81 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots15/1514.5 shots/match
5.73 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/155.07 shots/match
50.1%Possession15/15● 59.5%
5.87 corners/match ●Corners15/155.27 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards15/152.53 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls15/158.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headRB Leipzig — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required