Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap

FC St. Pauli

LLLLL

0–4Full-time recap

Borussia Mönchengladbach

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC St. Pauli	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Shots	16 shots/match▲	15 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	8 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.2 goals/match	0.89 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Mönchengladbach in 4 · 8 too close

0.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.11 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/92 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/912 shots/match

11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/915.2 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5.11 shots/match

5.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/95.67 shots/match

52%Possessionseason · 9/946.6%

5.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/95.11 corners/match

3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.33 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.89 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%

44%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/944%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli63.9

Borussia Mönchengladbach19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli29.6

Borussia Mönchengladbach41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli35.2

Borussia Mönchengladbach17.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli25

Borussia Mönchengladbach52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli50

Borussia Mönchengladbach47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli69.4

Borussia Mönchengladbach52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli50

Borussia Mönchengladbach54.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

52.4%Possession5/543.2%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches

0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.11 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed9/92 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.3 shots/matchShots9/912 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.11 shots/match

52%Possession9/946.6%

5.56 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls9/912 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches

0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.11 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed9/92 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.3 shots/matchShots9/912 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.11 shots/match

52%Possession9/946.6%

5.56 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls9/912 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1.5 goals/match

2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲1.25 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.6 shots/matchShots5/412.8 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/4▲6.5 shots/match

52.4%Possession5/448.5%

7.6 corners/matchCorners5/45.25 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/42.25 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples9 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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