PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVVfL Wolfsburg
Shots27 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners11 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Hamburger SV's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Hamburger SV have a visible home split

weak

Hamburger SV's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 3 · 5 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.13 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.63 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/812.8 shots/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/815.3 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.38 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/85.13 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 8/846.9%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.13 corners/match
5.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/88.13 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲2.25 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
38%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲63%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV36.1
VfL Wolfsburg22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV51.9
VfL Wolfsburg26.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV50.9
VfL Wolfsburg37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV80.6
VfL Wolfsburg69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV75
VfL Wolfsburg59.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV16.7
VfL Wolfsburg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV60.4
VfL Wolfsburg34
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/545.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.13 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812.8 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
47.5%Possession8/846.9%
4 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/82.25 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.13 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812.8 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
47.5%Possession8/846.9%
4 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/82.25 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.3 shots/match▲Shots4/411 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match
48.3%Possession4/446.8%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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