PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigHamburger SV
Shots10 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.9 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · Hamburger SV12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigHamburger SVBaseline
Shots15.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 1 · 5 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/712.7 shots/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/715.4 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.71 shots/match
3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/75.71 shots/match
48.6%Possessionseason · 7/745.6%
6.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73 corners/match
4.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.86 corners/match
1.71 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/713.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/743%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig41.7
Hamburger SV13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig52.8
Hamburger SV35.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig66.7
Hamburger SV33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
Hamburger SV63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig27.8
Hamburger SV77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig94.4
Hamburger SV2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig66
Hamburger SV43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/matchShots5/515.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/546.4%
7 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots7/712.7 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.71 shots/match
48.6%Possession7/745.6%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/73 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/72.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/713.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots7/712.7 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.71 shots/match
48.6%Possession7/745.6%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/73 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/72.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/713.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/40.25 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots3/411.8 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/43.25 shots/match
53.3%Possession3/446.8%
5.33 corners/matchCorners3/44.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/41.75 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/413.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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