PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgVfB Stuttgart
Shots11 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners3 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

48%▲PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · VfB Stuttgart59.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession48%59.1%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 4 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲15.1 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲11 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.57 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.86 shots/match
48%Possessionseason · 7/759.1%
4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.14 corners/match
7.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲5.43 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲57%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1
VfB Stuttgart91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg37
VfB Stuttgart78.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg46.3
VfB Stuttgart84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg80.6
VfB Stuttgart47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1
VfB Stuttgart15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg25
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg40.3
VfB Stuttgart72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots5/514.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
49%Possession5/557.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲15.1 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.57 shots/match
48%Possession7/759.1%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/71.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲15.1 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.57 shots/match
48%Possession7/759.1%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/71.57 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShots4/414.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5 shots/match
47%Possession4/461.3%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/47 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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