PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

Lyon

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgLyon
Shots13 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Guéla Doué · Strasbourg · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.02 xG · goalEndrick · Lyon · 70′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEndrick · Lyon · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Chilwell · Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 51′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 24′ · 0.09 xG · on targetGuéla Doué · Strasbourg · 73′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 59′ · 0.14 xG · goalTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 18′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 32′ · 0.23 xG · on targetMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 37′ · 0.53 xG · goalJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 83′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 13 shots, 7 on target, 2.15 xG. Lyon: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Martial Godo · Strasbourg · 37′Diego Moreira · Strasbourg · 52′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 83′Corentin Tolisso · Lyon · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 2.15 xG · Lyon 0.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lyon's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Strasbourg
0Draws
1Lyon
Lyon — Strasbourg · Ligue 12–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 4 · 8 too close

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.61 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲11.9 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2311.1 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/234.65 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.52 shots/match
51.7%Possessionseason · 23/2354.8%
3.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.65 corners/match
4.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.61 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/232.22 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2314 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲52%
87%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2387%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg63.9
Lyon80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg58.3
Lyon65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg64.8
Lyon77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg25
Lyon13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg40.2
Lyon76.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg25
Lyon86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg38.2
Lyon77.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
48%Possession5/548.4%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.6 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
53.5%Possession10/1055.7%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.61 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲11.9 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target23/234.65 shots/match
51.7%Possession23/2354.8%
3.87 corners/matchCorners23/235.65 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards23/232.22 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls23/2314 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121.5 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.6 shots/match
5.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/124.83 shots/match
50.9%Possession11/1253.2%
4.73 corners/matchCorners11/125.5 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards11/122.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1213.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgLyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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