Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

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20Full-time recap

Nice

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonNice
Shots9 shots/match10 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners8 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sofiane Diop · Nice · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Niakhaté · Lyon · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTyler Morton · Lyon · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKaïl Boudache · Nice · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 9′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 22′ · 0.11 xG · on targetTom Louchet · Nice · 49′ · 0.14 xG · on targetPavel Šulc · Lyon · 45′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 12′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 63′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 45′ · 0.38 xG · goalNoah Nartey · Lyon · 64′ · 0.40 xG · goalKaïl Boudache · Nice · 12′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.56 xG. Nice: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Corentin Tolisso · Lyon · 45′Noah Nartey · Lyon · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 1.56 xG · Nice 1.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lyon's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.64 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lyon show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lyon's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/matchShotsLyon · Nice11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLyonNiceBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lyon
0Draws
1Nice
NiceLyon · Ligue 132

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 0 · 6 too close

1.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/221.23 goals/match
0.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/221.82 goals/match
Expected goalsseason · 0/0
Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/2211.7 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2215.1 shots/match
4.77 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/224.18 shots/match
3.36 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/225.27 shots/match
55%Possessionseason · 22/2248%
5.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.09 corners/match
4.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/225.73 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/222.32 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2212.7 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
55%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2214%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2273%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon86.1
Nice41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon72.2
Nice44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon84.3
Nice7.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon19.4
Nice47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon75
Nice68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon86.1
Nice69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon79.2
Nice56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
10.8 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/549.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
0.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
12.8 shots/matchShots10/1012.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match
57.7%Possession10/1050.7%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored22/221.23 goals/match
0.91 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.82 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
12.2 shots/matchShots22/2211.7 shots/match
4.77 shots/matchShots on target22/224.18 shots/match
55%Possession22/2248%
5.82 corners/matchCorners22/225.09 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards22/222.32 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.18 goals/match
0.64 goals/matchGoals allowed11/112.36 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
13.3 shots/matchShots11/1110 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on target11/113.36 shots/match
56.5%Possession11/1147.8%
5.82 corners/matchCorners11/114.73 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards11/112.55 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.24 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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