PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LLLLL
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceStrasbourg
Shots19 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Tiago Gouveia · Nice · 15′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSamir El Mourabet · Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Gouveia · Nice · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEverton Pereira · Nice · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 59′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLucas Høgsberg · Strasbourg · 61′ · 0.05 xG · on targetValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 77′ · 0.06 xG · on targetElye Wahi · Nice · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 54′ · 0.07 xG · goalAbdulay Juma Bah · Nice · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 36′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTanguy Ndombélé · Nice · 19′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 41′ · 0.12 xG · on targetBernard Nguene · Nice · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 64′ · 0.13 xG · on targetTanguy Ndombélé · Nice · 70′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 72′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedTiago Gouveia · Nice · 24′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 34′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 58′ · 0.32 xG · on targetMorgan Sanson · Nice · 58′ · 0.51 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 24′ · 0.56 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 13′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.88 xG. Strasbourg: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Elye Wahi · Nice · 54′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 13′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 2.88 xG · Strasbourg 1.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 7 · 6 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.53 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.24 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1710.9 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲10.6 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/174.24 shots/match
5.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.88 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 17/1752.9%
4.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/173.94 corners/match
5.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲3.76 corners/match
2.24 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/172.35 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲41%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice41.7
Strasbourg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice37.1
Strasbourg49.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice11.1
Strasbourg67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice47.2
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice58.3
Strasbourg57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice58.3
Strasbourg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice49.3
Strasbourg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
51.8%Possession5/558.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots10/1010.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
43.8%Possession10/1053.8%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.53 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.24 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots17/1710.9 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target17/174.24 shots/match
47.5%Possession17/1752.9%
4.94 corners/matchCorners17/173.94 corners/match
2.24 cards/matchCards17/172.35 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots9/99.56 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.22 shots/match
47.3%Possession9/952.2%
5.11 corners/matchCorners9/93.11 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/92.78 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls9/912.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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