PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

LLWLL
1–3Full-time recap

Lyon

LDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoLyon
Shots6 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Aleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAinsley Maitland-Niles · Lyon · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTyler Morton · Lyon · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 89′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdam Karabec · Lyon · 88′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPavel Šulc · Lyon · 57′ · 0.07 xG · goalCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 66′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 51′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 28′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 79′ · 0.12 xG · goalCaio Henrique · Monaco · 18′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 45′ · 0.14 xG · goalPavel Šulc · Lyon · 38′ · 0.75 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.48 xG. Lyon: 13 shots, 9 on target, 1.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Mamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 45′Pavel Šulc · Lyon · 38′Pavel Šulc · Lyon · 57′Abner Vinícius · Lyon · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 0.48 xG · Lyon 1.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 7 · 5 too close

1.59 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.47 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/1712.6 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲11.1 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲4.82 shots/match
4.76 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.35 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 17/1755.7%
4.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/176.18 corners/match
4.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/174.65 corners/match
2.76 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲2.35 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1714.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲53%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco69.4
Lyon80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco62.9
Lyon69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco24.1
Lyon78.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco36.1
Lyon25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco80.5
Lyon82
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco47.2
Lyon86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco57.6
Lyon82
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
48%Possession5/562.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/1013.1 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
50.9%Possession10/1055.7%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
3.1 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.59 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.47 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots17/1712.6 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.82 shots/match
53.2%Possession17/1755.7%
4.65 corners/matchCorners17/176.18 corners/match
2.76 cards/matchCards17/172.35 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls17/1714.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots9/911.1 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.78 shots/match
52.6%Possession9/955%
4.67 corners/matchCorners9/96.22 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards9/92.78 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/914.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

19.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoLyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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