PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 16 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

LWLLL
1–3Full-time recap

Lorient

DWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoLorient
Shots14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Laurent Abergel · Lorient · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 56′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 2′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPablo Pagis · Lorient · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMontassar Talbi · Lorient · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · Monaco · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWout Faes · Monaco · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 35′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 20′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 8′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 9′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKarim Dermane · Lorient · 87′ · 0.09 xG · goalKarim Dermane · Lorient · 83′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 16′ · 0.12 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 7′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAnsu Fati · Monaco · 76′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 85′ · 0.20 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 76′ · 0.38 xG · goalAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 68′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.31 xG. Lorient: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ansu Fati · Monaco · 76′Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 68′Jean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 85′Karim Dermane · Lorient · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 1.31 xG · Lorient 1.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7%▲PossessionMonaco · Lorient43.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoLorientBaseline
Possession53.7%43.1%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monaco
0Draws
1Lorient
Lorient — Monaco · Ligue 13–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 5 · 5 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.28 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/1812.3 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲9.89 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.94 shots/match
4.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲3.94 shots/match
53.7%Possessionseason · 18/1843.1%
4.61 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/183.17 corners/match
4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.06 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.94 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1810.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲17%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco69.4
Lorient19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco63.9
Lorient45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco21.3
Lorient56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco30.6
Lorient86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco80.5
Lorient19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco52.8
Lorient8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco59.7
Lorient27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/540.2%
5 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.1 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots10/1012.8 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
51.3%Possession10/1042.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/100.7 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/108.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.28 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots18/1812.3 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.94 shots/match
53.7%Possession18/1843.1%
4.61 corners/matchCorners18/183.17 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards18/181.94 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/90.56 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/911 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/92.78 shots/match
53.5%Possession10/943.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/93.33 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/91.89 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/99.89 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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