UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeSantiago BernabéuFull-time recap

Real Madrid

WWLWL

6–1Full-time recap

Monaco

DDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Monaco
Shots	25 shots/match▲	20 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	3.94 xG/match▲	1.55 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	10 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 26 shots, 6 on target, 4.08 xG. Monaco: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 4.08 xG · Monaco 1.54 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Monaco15.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Monaco	Baseline
Shots	20 shots/match	15.1 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	15.1 shots/match	18.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid have a visible home split

weak

Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

24.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season20 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	24.3 shots/match	20 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.86 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Monaco5.29 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Monaco	Baseline
Corners	6.86 corners/match	5.29 corners/match	4.57 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 2 · 4 too close

2.71 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.14 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72 goals/match

2.49 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.85 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.96 xG/match

20 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/715.1 shots/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/718.1 shots/match

7.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/75 shots/match

6.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲4.71 shots/match

56.7%Possessionseason · 7/745.3%

6.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/75.29 corners/match

4.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.71 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.86 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/713 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid91.7

Monaco20.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid90.9

Monaco48.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid42.4

Monaco26.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid89.3

Monaco84.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid22.6

Monaco75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid94

Monaco67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid74.1

Monaco65.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

2.05 xG/matchExpected goals5/52.01 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shots5/517 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

57.4%Possession5/547.4%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match

2.49 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.85 xG/match

20 shots/match▲Shots7/715.1 shots/match

7.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75 shots/match

56.7%Possession7/745.3%

6.86 corners/matchCorners7/75.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.86 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match

2.49 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.85 xG/match

20 shots/match▲Shots7/715.1 shots/match

7.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75 shots/match

56.7%Possession7/745.3%

6.86 corners/matchCorners7/75.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.86 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43 goals/match

2.95 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.43 xG/match

24.3 shots/match▲Shots4/414 shots/match

7.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.75 shots/match

52.5%Possession4/447.5%

8.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

41 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/142 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4