PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 16 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

Lille

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainLille
Shots13 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Romain Perraud · Lille · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 2′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 29′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEthan Mbappé · Lille · 6′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 20′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 13′ · 0.10 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 64′ · 0.15 xG · goalNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 85′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 83′ · 0.23 xG · on targetEthan Mbappé · Lille · 2′ · 0.31 xG · on targetRomain Perraud · Lille · 90′ · 0.42 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.67 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.46 xG. Lille: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 13′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 64′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.46 xG · Lille 1.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.17 corners/match▲CornersParis Saint Germain · Lille5.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainLilleBaseline
Corners6.17 corners/match5.83 corners/match4.57 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.6 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Lille14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainLilleBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against8.44 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris Saint Germain
1Draws
0Lille
Lille — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 11–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 0 · 4 too close

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.83 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.39 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1814.1 shots/match
8.44 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1810.4 shots/match
6.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.83 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/183.89 shots/match
69.2%Possessionseason · 18/1854.2%
6.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.83 corners/match
2.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/184.5 corners/match
1.11 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.39 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1828%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Lille80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Lille84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain95.4
Lille65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain63.9
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain5.6
Lille61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain91.7
Lille80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain73.6
Lille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.2 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
62.6%Possession5/546.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
0.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105 shots/match
68%Possession10/1052.6%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.83 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.39 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1814.1 shots/match
6.83 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.83 shots/match
69.2%Possession18/1854.2%
6.17 corners/matchCorners18/185.83 corners/match
1.11 cards/matchCards18/182.39 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1812 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.89 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots9/913.3 shots/match
7.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.89 shots/match
69.8%Possession9/957.2%
6.78 corners/matchCorners9/95.89 corners/match
1.11 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls9/912.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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