PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

DWLWW
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonStade Brestois 29
Shots19 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession71%29%
Corners5 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Joris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 25′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEndrick · Lyon · 44′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOrel Mangala · Lyon · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 45′ · 0.04 xG · goalTyler Morton · Lyon · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 71′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 41′ · 0.11 xG · goalJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 87′ · 0.11 xG · goalNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 72′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAinsley Maitland-Niles · Lyon · 64′ · 0.22 xG · on targetEndrick · Lyon · 39′ · 0.27 xG · on targetTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 56′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 53′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 19 shots, 6 on target, 1.54 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Pavel Šulc · Lyon · 41′Abner Vinícius · Lyon · 45′Junior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 1.54 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.67 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Lyon have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.6%▲PossessionLyon · Stade Brestois 2943.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLyonStade Brestois 29Baseline
Possession56.6%43.4%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lyon
1Draws
0Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 — Lyon · Ligue 10–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 1 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.33 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.61 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1811.7 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1812.6 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.94 shots/match
3.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.39 shots/match
56.6%Possessionseason · 18/1843.4%
6.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.28 corners/match
4.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.17 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.89 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1813.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1828%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon86.1
Stade Brestois 2925
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon67.6
Stade Brestois 2939.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon82.4
Stade Brestois 2936.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon30.6
Stade Brestois 2980.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon84.7
Stade Brestois 2947.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon91.7
Stade Brestois 2930.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon84.7
Stade Brestois 2943.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
63%Possession5/540.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.2 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
55.9%Possession10/1042.2%
5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.33 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.61 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.7 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.94 shots/match
56.6%Possession18/1843.4%
6.11 corners/matchCorners18/184.28 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards18/181.89 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.11 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots9/98.67 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
58.1%Possession9/942.1%
6 corners/matchCorners9/92.89 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls9/912.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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