PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

LWWWW
0–2Full-time recap

Rennes

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleRennes
Shots13 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession39%61%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Olivier Giroud · Lille · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Frankowski · Rennes · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCalvin Verdonk · Lille · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 88′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 75′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 59′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 80′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Frankowski · Rennes · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 83′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Rennes · 76′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 3′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 56′ · 0.16 xG · goalPrzemysław Frankowski · Rennes · 49′ · 0.17 xG · goalHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 82′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 36′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 40′ · 0.20 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.84 xG. Rennes: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Przemysław Frankowski · Rennes · 49′Quentin Merlin · Rennes · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.84 xG · Rennes 1.54 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Rennes12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleRennesBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 2 · 5 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.71 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.41 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1712.7 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1714.6 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/174.53 shots/match
3.71 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.29 shots/match
55.1%Possessionseason · 17/1751%
6.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.41 corners/match
4.53 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲2.06 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1729%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille75
Rennes58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille86.1
Rennes73.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille72.2
Rennes38
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille75
Rennes52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille68
Rennes30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille80.6
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille76.4
Rennes59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
49%Possession5/550.8%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.1 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/105 shots/match
55%Possession10/1049.8%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.71 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.7 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.53 shots/match
55.1%Possession17/1751%
6.06 corners/matchCorners17/175.41 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCards17/172.06 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots9/910 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match
51.2%Possession9/951.3%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/95.56 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/910.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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