PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain
Shots8 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession25%75%
Corners2 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kenny Lala · Stade Brestois 29 · 9′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 23′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.11 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.12 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 73′ · 0.12 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 24′ · 0.25 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 87′ · 0.26 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 29′ · 0.32 xG · goalPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 17′ · 0.45 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.49 xG · goalRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 59′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.63 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 18 shots, 8 on target, 2.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 29′Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 39′Désiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.63 xG · Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.7%▲PossessionStade Brestois 29 · Paris Saint Germain71.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 28.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris Saint GermainBaseline
Possession42.7%71.2%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois 29's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Paris Saint Germain16.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris Saint GermainBaseline
Shots13 shots/match16.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match9.22 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 4 too close

1.56 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲2.11 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲16.6 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲9.22 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲6.33 shots/match
4.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲2.78 shots/match
42.7%Possessionseason · 9/971.2%
4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/96 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲2.89 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲0.89 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.78 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲56%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2952.8
Paris Saint Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2926.8
Paris Saint Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Paris Saint Germain19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2936.1
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2941.7
Paris Saint Germain80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2946.5
Paris Saint Germain69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
41.4%Possession5/568.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.11 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots9/9▲16.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲6.33 shots/match
42.7%Possession9/971.2%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/96 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/90.89 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/99.78 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.11 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots9/9▲16.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲6.33 shots/match
42.7%Possession9/971.2%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/96 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/90.89 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/99.78 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/matchShots5/515.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/570.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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