PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 19:05 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

LWDWW
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensMarseille
Shots8 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession31%69%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 83′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatt O'Riley · Marseille · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAmir Murillo · Marseille · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 17′ · 0.05 xG · goalSamson Baidoo · Lens · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 6′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMatthieu Udol · Lens · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRobinio Vaz · Marseille · 2′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Lens · 53′ · 0.10 xG · goalFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 62′ · 0.30 xG · on targetMamadou Sangare · Lens · 90′ · 0.55 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 23′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.98 xG. Marseille: 17 shots, 3 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 23′Benjamin Pavard · Lens · 53′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 1.98 xG · Marseille 0.68 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.11 corners/match▲CornersLens · Marseille6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLensMarseilleBaseline
Corners6.11 corners/match6 corners/match4.59 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Lens have a visible home split

moderate

Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lens's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 8 · 5 too close

1.56 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲2.44 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲15.1 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲9.22 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5.78 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/93.44 shots/match
42.9%Possessionseason · 9/960.4%
6.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/96 corners/match
5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲3.22 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲2.44 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens25
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens64.8
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens65.7
Marseille82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens72.2
Marseille66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens86.1
Marseille77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens71.5
Marseille78.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.6 shots/match
37.6%Possession5/559.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.44 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.78 shots/match
42.9%Possession9/960.4%
6.11 corners/matchCorners9/96 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.44 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.78 shots/match
42.9%Possession9/960.4%
6.11 corners/matchCorners9/96 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/matchShots5/516.6 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match
47%Possession5/561%
9.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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