PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

WWLDD
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoToulouse
Shots14 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 26′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 44′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 82′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Salisu · Monaco · 3′ · 0.34 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 35′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedKassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 78′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedPape Cabral · Monaco · 78′ · 0.46 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 35′ · 0.49 xG · on targetAnsu Fati · Monaco · 6′ · 0.63 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 14 shots, 5 on target, 3.26 xG. Toulouse: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Mohammed Salisu · Monaco · 3′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 3.26 xG · Toulouse 0.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monaco's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Monaco have a visible home split

moderate

Monaco's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.4%▲PossessionMonaco · Toulouse40.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoToulouseBaseline
Possession56.4%40.3%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 9 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.67 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/91.44 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/912.4 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/912.1 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.11 shots/match
3.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/93.33 shots/match
56.4%Possessionseason · 9/940.3%
4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/94.22 corners/match
5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/95.56 corners/match
2.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/92.89 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/914.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/978%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco75
Toulouse8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco50
Toulouse52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco66.7
Toulouse63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco8.3
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco63.9
Toulouse88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco47.2
Toulouse30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco48.6
Toulouse51.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
54.8%Possession5/543.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/517.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.67 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots9/912.4 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.11 shots/match
56.4%Possession9/940.3%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/94.22 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards9/92.89 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls9/914.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.67 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots9/912.4 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.11 shots/match
56.4%Possession9/940.3%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/94.22 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards9/92.89 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls9/914.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
56%Possession5/542%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/54.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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