PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Louis II

AS Monaco 1–0 Toulouse · Ligue 1

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AS Monaco won 1–0.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
3.080.68
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Monaco beat Toulouse 1–0. Recorded in this match (Monaco – Toulouse): shots 14–10, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 3.08–0.68, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Monaco have a visible home split

moderate

Monaco's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.4% ●PossessionMonaco · Toulouse40.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoToulouseBaseline
Possession56.4%40.3%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shotsAS Monaco 14 shots, Toulouse 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsAS Monaco 5 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.08 xG0.68 xGAS Monaco 3.08 xG, Toulouse 0.68 xG
  • Possession54%46%AS Monaco 54%, Toulouse 46%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersAS Monaco 2 corners, Toulouse 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls18 foulsAS Monaco 15 fouls, Toulouse 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsAS Monaco 3 cards, Toulouse 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 26′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 44′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 82′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Salisu · Monaco · 3′ · 0.34 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 35′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedKassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 78′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedPape Cabral · Monaco · 78′ · 0.46 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 35′ · 0.49 xG · on targetAnsu Fati · Monaco · 6′ · 0.63 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 14 shots, 5 on target, 3.26 xG. Toulouse: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Mohammed Salisu · Monaco · 3′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 3.26 xG · Toulouse 0.70 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AS Monaco
1Draws
2Toulouse
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 11–1
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 12–0
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 11–2
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AS Monaco favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AS Monaco9 matchesToulouse9 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91.67 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
2.08 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.53 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots9/912.4 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 4.22 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession9/940.3%
4.56 corners/match ●Corners9/94.22 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards9/92.89 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls9/914.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAS MonacoToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headAS Monaco — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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