PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 20:05 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

Rennes

DDDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseRennes
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession55%45%
Corners5 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Abu Francis · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbu Francis · Toulouse · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Rennes · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 54′ · 0.08 xG · goalCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 67′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 7′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 58′ · 0.16 xG · goalMousa Tamari · Rennes · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 63′ · 0.36 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 50′ · 0.52 xG · goalAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.60 xG. Rennes: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 58′Aron Dønnum · Toulouse · 85′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 50′Mousa Tamari · Rennes · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.60 xG · Rennes 1.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rennes. A second useful context is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rennes.

4.13 days▲Rest daysToulouse · Rennes3.16 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricToulouseRennesBaseline
Rest days4.13 days3.16 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 4 · 5 too close

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲13.4 shots/match
12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1013.3 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.6 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/104 shots/match
41.8%Possessionseason · 10/1052.4%
4.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.2 corners/match
5.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.1 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲2.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse8.3
Rennes63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse53.7
Rennes64.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse62.1
Rennes38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse87.5
Rennes52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse38.9
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse54.2
Rennes66
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots5/514.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/555.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.4 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
41.8%Possession10/1052.4%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.4 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
41.8%Possession10/1052.4%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
41.6%Possession5/554.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 30 Oct 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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