PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseLe Havre
Shots18 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mario Sauer · Toulouse · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 28′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 69′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAyumu Seko · Le Havre · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 7′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 77′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 48′ · 0.50 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 88′ · 0.73 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 18 shots, 2 on target, 1.14 xG. Le Havre: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.14 xG · Le Havre 1.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Toulouse, Le Havre. A second useful context is: Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Toulouse, Le Havre.

3.84 days▲Rest daysToulouse · Le Havre3.93 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricToulouseLe HavreBaseline
Rest days3.84 days3.93 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Le Havre have a visible away split

moderate

Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.17 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.17 shots/match11 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.8 fouls/match▲FoulsToulouse · Le Havre14.5 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLe HavreBaseline
Fouls13.8 fouls/match14.5 fouls/match12.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 3 · 6 too close

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.09 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.45 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1111 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲10.6 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.45 shots/match
3.45 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/113.73 shots/match
42.2%Possessionseason · 11/1145.5%
4.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/113.82 corners/match
5.45 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.55 corners/match
2.64 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲2 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1114.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1136%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse8.3
Le Havre47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse56.5
Le Havre25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse66.7
Le Havre63
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Le Havre47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse80.5
Le Havre65.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse58.3
Le Havre16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse63.9
Le Havre39.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/543.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
42.1%Possession10/1047.4%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1111 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.45 shots/match
42.2%Possession11/1145.5%
4.82 corners/matchCorners11/113.82 corners/match
2.64 cards/matchCards11/112 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1114.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots6/69.17 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.83 shots/match
42.3%Possession6/642.2%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/63.5 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.93 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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