PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

DWWWL
3–0Full-time recap

Lorient

WLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensLorient
Shots9 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners7 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Igor Silva · Lorient · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIgor Silva · Lorient · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 11′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 42′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 70′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDarlin Yongwa · Lorient · 34′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 58′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 2′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 60′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 54′ · 0.20 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 18′ · 0.22 xG · on targetKarim Dermane · Lorient · 50′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 6′ · 0.34 xG · goalSamson Baidoo · Lens · 89′ · 0.44 xG · goalWesley Saïd · Lens · 77′ · 0.78 xG · goalMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 64′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 9 shots, 6 on target, 2.14 xG. Lorient: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 6′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 77′Samson Baidoo · Lens · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 2.14 xG · Lorient 1.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lens, Lorient. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lens, Lorient.

3.93 days▲Rest daysLens · Lorient3.93 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLensLorientBaseline
Rest days3.93 days3.93 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lens have a visible home split

moderate

Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 2 · 5 too close

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.18 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/112.27 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1112.1 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲10.3 shots/match
4.45 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/114 shots/match
3.64 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/114.64 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 11/1143.7%
6.09 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/113.27 corners/match
5.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.82 corners/match
2.55 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/112.73 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/119%
64%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1155%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens38.9
Lorient19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens60.2
Lorient40.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens62
Lorient39.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens80.6
Lorient75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens58.3
Lorient51.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens80.6
Lorient2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens63.2
Lorient27.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots5/5▲12 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
45.8%Possession5/543.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/1011.9 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
44.3%Possession10/1042.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots11/1112.1 shots/match
4.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114 shots/match
45.3%Possession11/1143.7%
6.09 corners/matchCorners11/113.27 corners/match
2.55 cards/matchCards11/112.73 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.17 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots6/611.5 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63 shots/match
48.8%Possession6/645%
8.83 corners/matchCorners6/63.83 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.93 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.93 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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