Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

DDLWL
02Full-time recap

Metz

DLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesMetz
Shots16 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners8 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Koffi Kouao · Metz · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaxime Colin · Metz · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 64′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLouis Leroux · Nantes · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTerry Yegbe · Metz · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBahmed Deuff · Nantes · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHabibou Diallo · Metz · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 38′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 75′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlpha Touré · Metz · 6′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 82′ · 0.08 xG · goalJoel Asoro · Metz · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIbou Sane · Metz · 61′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHabibou Diallo · Metz · 66′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 72′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 54′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedHabibou Diallo · Metz · 73′ · 0.14 xG · on targetKoffi Kouao · Metz · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedHabibou Diallo · Metz · 89′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 16 shots, 4 on target, 0.87 xG. Metz: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Giorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 82′Habibou Diallo · Metz · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.87 xG · Metz 1.34 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nantes, Metz. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nantes, Metz.

3.84 daysRest daysNantes · Metz3.93 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNantesMetzBaseline
Rest days3.84 days3.93 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 5 · 5 too close

0.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/110.91 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/112.36 goals/match
Expected goalsseason · 0/0
Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/118.82 shots/match
16.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/1115.3 shots/match
2.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/113 shots/match
5.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/116.09 shots/match
43.5%Possessionseason · 11/1148.5%
3.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.09 corners/match
6.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/115.73 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/111.73 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.4 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%
45%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1155%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9
Metz52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes13
Metz11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes20.3
Metz6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes63.9
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes19.4
Metz22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes16.7
Metz27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes16
Metz16
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
11.8 shots/matchShots5/59.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
43.6%Possession5/546.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
11.4 shots/matchShots10/109.5 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/103.3 shots/match
45%Possession10/1049.5%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/110.91 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/112.36 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
10.8 shots/matchShots11/118.82 shots/match
2.64 shots/matchShots on target11/113 shots/match
43.5%Possession11/1148.5%
3.82 corners/matchCorners11/114.09 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/111.73 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored6/61.17 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/63.5 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
11.2 shots/matchShots6/69.83 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/63.33 shots/match
42%Possession6/650.5%
3.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.67 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls6/610 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.93 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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