PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

LDLLL
2–0Full-time recap

Lens

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzLens
Shots16 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gauthier Hein · Metz · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 36′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatthieu Udol · Lens · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 57′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMorgan Guilavogui · Lens · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 52′ · 0.14 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 16′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 48′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMaxime Colin · Metz · 38′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 52′ · 0.22 xG · on targetHabibou Diallo · Metz · 51′ · 0.31 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 7′ · 0.59 xG · on targetHabibou Diallo · Metz · 36′ · 0.62 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 87′ · 0.82 xG · goalGauthier Hein · Metz · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 16 shots, 7 on target, 3.48 xG. Lens: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Gauthier Hein · Metz · 87′Gauthier Hein · Metz · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 3.48 xG · Lens 1.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Metz, Lens. A second useful context is: Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Metz, Lens.

3.17 days▲Rest daysMetz · Lens3.95 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMetzLensBaseline
Rest days3.17 days3.95 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lens have a visible away split

moderate

Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 7 · 6 too close

0.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲12.9 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲14.3 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.3 shots/match
6.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.7 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 10/1044%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/105.3 corners/match
1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 10/102.6 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲60%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz52.8
Lens30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz7.4
Lens54.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz6.5
Lens59.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Lens86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz20.9
Lens68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz22.2
Lens80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz14.6
Lens65.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲9.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
47.8%Possession5/540.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1044%
4 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1044%
4 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲9.4 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲2.8 shots/match
46%Possession5/541%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.95 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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